Sunday, February 21, 2016

Hillary Wins Nevada By 5.5 Points Amid Second Biggest Turnout Ever

As of 9:40 PM (Pacific) Saturday night, The New York Times reports that the Nevada Democratic Caucuses went 52.7% for Hillary and 47.2% for Bernie, with about 5% of precincts left to be accounted for. 

Some sources are still spinning it as “Hillary eked out a win.”  I don’t know about that – in most elections, a 5½  point spread is usually considered a pretty decisive victory.  Sure, Bernie put in a good showing, but Hillary’s victory wasn’t “eked out.” Not by a long shot.Heck, even Fox News handed it to her - and they seem to have a whole separate bureau specifically dedicated to identifying and promoting each and every story's possible anti-Hillary angles.

Screen snip, Twitter 

About 80,000 folks* participated in Nevada's Democratic caucuses this year.  Yes, that’s about a 33% decline from 2008 (which had almost 120,000 turn out.)  But 2008 was a unicorn.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Hey, Ted Cruz: An Impotent SCOTUS Makes The Founders Cry


Ted Cruz / Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0

That fine defender of the United States Constitution, Senator Ted Cruz, has spoken.  Apparently we owe it to Justice Scalia's memory to ensure that his seat on the Supreme Court remain empty for 11 months or longer. 



Okay.  Let's say we did that.  On close questions, we'd be looking at a lot of 4 to 4 decisions - meaning the Court would be unable to actually issue binding opinions on the most controversial matters that come before it.  In legalese, that scenario would reduce the Supreme Court of the United States to a nullity.  In plain English, the Supreme Court may as well not exist.

I recall Justice Scalia being very, very concerned with The Founders' intent (at least, as he conceived of it.)  Am I the only who thinks, hey, maybe The Founders REALLY liked the ideas of three coequal branches of government, which provide checks & balances against one another's power?  Am I the only one who recalls those concepts being frequent topics of discussion at the time of our founding?


Certainly, a die-hard original intent fan like Senator Cruz recalls these points being repeatedly made within The Federalist Papers.  A 4-4 SCOTUS = one branch down, Senator Cruz.



Friday, February 5, 2016

Citing Satire as "Reporting," Raw Story Implies Iowa Pro-Hillary Shenanigans

Hillary at the 2015 Iowa Fair / Phil Roeder, CC BY 2.0

Raw Story is the Democrats’ answer to Breitbart.  Anything you see from them needs to be scrutinized carefully and fact-checked thoroughly.  Fail to, and you’ll share, repost, or cite at your own risk.

Case in point: THIS Raw Story piece is the WORST.  The author, in building a case that pro-Hillary shenanigans were afoot in the Iowa caucuses, was incredibly sloppy in his sourcing and analysis.  I’m not sure whether this resulted from his desire to prove his thesis, or the perverse incentives of “writing at the speed of the Internet” resulting in haphazard work, or both.  Just in case it’s primarily due to an unusual series of mistakes – and we’ve all made them – I’ll simply refer to him here as RS Travis.

RS Travis cites an Iowa blog for saying the EXACT OPPOSITE of what it says.  He also cites a HuffPo satire piece as “reporting,” and paints a couple of fairly even-handed Iowa newspaper editorials as being much more dramatic and sensational than they really were.   All in all, lovely. ;)

Misciting a one-year old source

RS Travis: 


The blog BleedingHeartland has been raising concerns that McGuire, who has been involved in Iowa politics for more than 20 years, is manipulating the state’s Democratic Party to favor Clinton over her challenger, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT).

Uh, that’s not what she said.  The Bleeding Heartland post he linked to was from one year ago, when McGuire was first elected Chair - the post and all updates are from January 2015: 

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Muslim Student: Obama at Mosque Says I Am Just As American As Any Other


College student Sabah Muktar introduces President Obama in Baltimore. Source: YouTube

THIS - college student Sabah Muktar, introducing President Obama's speech at the Islamic Society of Baltimore moments ago:
"And personally, [President Obama speaking at this mosque] reassures me that I, a proud, black, Muslim, African-American, am just as American, and have the obligation to fulfill my loyalty to my country, as any other."

Awesome. Awesome. Awesome. Sarah Palin and friends don't get to define "Real America." I've lived in Real America in rural Idaho, inner city Seattle, suburban Redlands (CA), a middle class Portland (OR) neighborhood, DC, "Portlandia"- like college towns, and on the Nez Perce Reservation. I've visited Real America in Montana, Tucson, Atlanta, Nashville, NYC, Ithaca, Charleston, San Antonio, Chicago, San Francisco, LA, San Diego, Boise, Pocatello, Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Tacoma, Yakima, Walla Walla, Salem (OR), St. Louis, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Kuna, Grangeville, Mukilteo, Everett, Olympia. I haven't had an opportunity to go see Real America in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, New Orleans, Miami, Dallas, Boston, Philadelphia, rural New England, Alaska, or any number of other places on my Bucket List, but I hope to get there someday.

Why Won't Bernie Denounce Super PAC Spending That's Helping HIM?

Bernie on the stump / Phil Roeder, CC-BY 2.0

The New York Times, reporting on Friday, January 29, 2016:
“Bernie Sanders is Democrats' Top Beneficiary of Outside Spending, Like It Or Not”* 

*This was the original, accurate headline. The NYT later subbed in a misleading, click-bait headline, which I really wish they'd get rid of.* 

I'm waiting to hear Sanders supporters - ANY Sanders supporters - call on Bernie to immediately and publicly repudiate the $5.3 million+ that super PACs have spent so far – much of it in Iowa and New Hampshire – to help Sanders and hurt Hillary.  At the very least, denouncing the $4.3 million in right wing attack ads that have been targeting Hillary would seem to be a gimme.

For the sake of consistency, if Bernie thinks all PACs are bad, he should probably respectfully request that UNNA not spend their super PAC money trying to elect him, either.  Ditto for myriad other Bernie-endorsing organizations, including MoveOn.org, which recently endorsed Bernie, and which spent almost a million dollars on campaign ads in the 2014 election season (note: MoveOn Political Action is a federal PAC rather than a super PAC, so they at least disclose their donors.)

Sunday, January 31, 2016

WaPo Misreports Friday's State Department Statement On Hillary's Emails


Sec. Clinton in India, 2011 / US Consulate Chennai, CC BY-ND 2.0


The GOP narrative around Hillary Clinton's State Department emails got an assist from a seemingly unlikely source on Friday: the so-called “Mainstream Media,” in the persons of Washington Post reporters Rosalind Helderman and Tom Hamburger, and Chris Cillizza, who writes WaPo politics blog, "The Fix.” 

Cillizza’s take on the story is, as of this writing, in the WaPo Top 5 most widely read pieces:



Unfortunately, they all read far too much into far too little.

Sayeth Cillizza:

For months, Hillary Clinton and her presidential campaign have stuck to a consistent story line when faced with of classified information on the private server she used exclusively as secretary of state: She was the victim of an overzealous intelligence community bent on categorizing information as top secret or classified when it was, in fact, neither.
That defense hit a major snag on Friday when the State Department announced that it, too, had found “top secret” information on Clinton’s server — 22 emails across seven separate emails chains. The information, the State Department said, was so secret that those emails would never be released to the public.

Suddenly Clinton’s narrative of an overly aggressive intelligence community or a broader squabble between the intelligence world and the State Department didn’t hold water. Or at least held a whole lot less water than it did prior to Friday afternoon.


Only problem? The State Department said no such thing. Having heard part of the State Department’s briefing on [conservative] talk radio on Friday, I recalled it very differently.  So I looked it up.  Here’s what State Department Spokesman John Kirby actually said:
I can confirm that as part of this monthly FOIA production of former Secretary Clinton’s emails, the State Department will be denying in full seven email chains found in 22 documents, representing 37 pages. The documents are being upgraded at the request of the Intelligence Community because they contain a category of top secret information. These documents were not marked classified at the time that they were sent. We have worked closely with our interagency partners on this matter, and this dialogue with the interagency is exactly how the process is supposed to work. As to whether they were classified at the time they were sent, the State Department, in the FOIA process, is focusing on whether they need to be classified today. Questions about classification at the time they were sent are being and will be handled separately by the State Department.  [emphasis added]

Kirby explicitly stated that the classification upgrade was per request from the Intelligence Community, not “the State Department itself.”  This is completely consistent with what Secretary Clinton and her campaign have been saying all along.  A few moments later, Kirby further stated:

These emails denied in full are among the emails discussed recently by the Intelligence Community inspector general in a letter to Congress. We will not, however, be confirming or speaking, as I said, to every detail provided in the documents or in the ICIG’s letter. One of these emails was also among those identified by the ICIG last summer as possibly containing top secret information. [emphasis added]


To be fair to Cillizza, his analysis apparently relied on reporting by two of his Washington Post colleagues, who asserted:

The Friday announcement was significant because it appeared to undercut Clinton’s argument in recent months that she was merely the victim of a bureaucratic squabble between overly strict analysts at the intelligence agencies and more reasonable reviewers at the State Department.

The intelligence community’s inspector general had previously indicated that he thought that some of the emails contained top secret material. Until Friday, however, the State Department had declined to concur with that assessment.


But this isn’t an accurate reading of Kirby’s comments.  In his initial statement and in response to numerous reporters’ questions on Friday, Kirby repeatedly reiterated that State had agreed to upgrade the emails in question at the request of the Intelligence Community.  The only slight deviation from this response came when a reporter asked whether, “you guys [at State] were prepared to release [these emails] until the intel community came in and said hey, wait a second, you can’t do that?”  To that question, Kirby replied:

No, I wouldn’t say – I wouldn’t say that, Matt. As I said we had an ongoing discussion about this traffic with them. At their request we’ve decided to make this upgrade. It is a State Department decision. We’re doing it, but we’re doing it at the request of the Intelligence Community. And we’re going to continue to coordinate and consult with them going forward.


It does seem technically accurate to say that decisions about whether to release documents in State’s possession pursuant to a FOIA request is inherently a State Department decision.  But folks infinitely more expert on this topic than I have generally supported Clinton’s contention that some agencies have a tendency to be overly cautious in making security classification determinations.  And predictably, the overly cautious entity usually wins the day, unless or until the decision is overruled in an intra-agency MDR review or on appeal to the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panel.

The most recent Informational Security Oversight Office report (at pdf p. 16) indicates that 62% of pages of classified materials challenged by the public via the MDR process were wholly declassified at the initial review stage, while an additional 32% of the pages were at least partially declassified on review.  That’s right: 94% of classified pages reviewed under MDR were wholly or partially declassified in response.  Of the much smaller universe of cases that made it to review on appeal to ISCAP (at pdf p. 26), 75% of the 451 documents reviewed by ISCAP were ordered declassified, either wholly or in part.  These data points would tend to support the contention that some agencies, at least, have a substantial habit of overclassifying materials.

The National Security Archive, a non-profit based at George Washington University, provided this overview of the over-classification phenomenon just a few days ago:

National Security Archive director Tom Blanton’s July 2015 Washington Post op-ed further lays out the ongoing problem of overclassification. Blanton argues that “the real secrets make up only a fraction of the classified universe, and no secret deserves immortality. In fact, essential to the whole idea of democratic government is that secret deals with dictators will come out eventually, not least to deter the worst deals from being made…I showed Congress the estimates over the years of how much gets classified that doesn’t deserve to be. Ronald Reagan’s executive secretary for the National Security Council, Rodney B. McDaniel, said 90 percent. Thomas H. Kean, the Republican head of the 9/11 Commission, said 75 percent of what he saw that was classified should not have been.”

Blanton is far from alone in pointing out persistent overclassification. The latest Information Security Oversight Office report showed that the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panel (ISCAP) continues to overrule agency classification decisions in Mandatory Declassification Review appeals nearly 75% of the time.


Of lesser import – but still worth noting – is Cillizza’s contention that Clinton’s campaign “pivoted” on the email issue, supposedly in response to the comments from State:

The Clinton team quickly pivoted. “After a process that has been dominated by bureaucratic infighting that has too often played out in public view, the loudest and leakiest participants in this interagency dispute have now prevailed in blocking any release of these emails,” said campaign spokesman Brian Fallon.

Calling for the release of the allegedly top secret emails is a smart gambit by the Clinton folks since it makes them look as if they have nothing to hide while being protected by the near-certainty that the State Department won’t simply change its mind on the release because the Clinton team asked them to.

This wasn’t any kind of “pivot.”  Secretary Clinton has been saying for almost a full year that she wants the emails released (presumably to the extent that release would not jeopardize national security):




State Department spokesman John Kirby repeatedly reiterated on Friday that State had upgraded classification of the 22 emails “at the Intelligence Community’s request.”  That sounds like simple interagency comity.  It’s too much of a stretch from there to declaring that the State Department made some kind of important, revelatory, independent determination regarding the proper classification.

Monday, January 25, 2016

No, Elizabeth Warren Didn't "Sink" Hillary Endorsement Hopes

Senator and progressive girl-crush Elizabeth Warren / Image: Ninian Reid, CC BY 2.0


The essay hit Huffington Post earlier today and is already manically careening around Facebook and other social media:

Elizabeth Warren Sinks Clinton's Hopes for Endorsement


Oh, BALONEY. 

The Elizabeth-Warren-secretly-loves-Bernie-and-hates-Hillary stories have been circulating online for months, mostly among Sanders' supporters.  And they only seem to be multiplying as Iowa draws near: "Warren in talks to endorse Bernie," "Bernie will nominate Warren for VP," "This comment from Sen. Warren PROVES she hates Hillary's guts!"  None of the stories or headlines are supported by actual evidence. 

Listen for yourself to the speech where Sen. Warren supposedly "made it clear she won't endorse Hillary":  

Sunday, January 24, 2016

VIDEO: Bundy "Wouldn't Be Surprised" If Malheur Occupation Still Going Come Spring

Image: Donkey Hotey, CC BY-SA 2.0

Ammon Bundy has said it repeatedly: he doesn't plan on going anywhere any time soon.  Now you can watch him tell a reporter that just this last week.

Do we believe him yet? Or are the authorities going to let these guys keep telling them they're open to negotiating an exit while they tell everyone who will listen that they're not. Going. Anywhere.


Portland show "Your Voice, Your Vote" went to Burns and interviewed, at length, the County Sheriff, Ammon Bundy, and the Judge who ruled that the occupiers are on the hook for around $70k per week in local costs.  

The Sheriff's and Judge's interviews really shed light on just how intimidating and threatening these guys are being in the community - in some cases, explicitly, in others, implicitly.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Tell President Obama - Daylight Dark Money Now!


An entertaining take on the issue: "Baby Got PACs"
Now for something completely different - policy action that progressives and Tea Party enthusiasts alike** should (theoretically) be able to get behind. Yesterday's Washington Post: "President Obama is weighing whether to invoke his executive authority to force federal contractors to disclose political contributions they make to independent groups, according to individuals briefed on the matter."
Spending by independent groups that aren't currently required to disclose their donors is often referred to as "dark money." The Center for Responsive Politics describes the problem thus:

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Obama's 2016 State of the Union - Highlights & Lowlights


Here are the highlights from President Barack Obama's final State of the Union, along with an assortment of thoughts, impressions, and cheap wisecracks inspired by the speech.   [All times Pacific and approximate.]


6:14 PM

Obama: "But tonight, I want to go easy on the traditional list of proposals for the year ahead.  Don't worry, I've got plenty, from helping students learn to write computer code to personalizing medical treatments for patients.  And I'll keep pushing for progress on the work that still needs doing.  Fixing a broken immigration system.  Protecting our kids from gun violence. ..."

Hmmm ... Is there going to be even a single point in this Presidential litany of progress that Speaker Paul Ryan can applaud for?

Obama: "... Equal pay for equal work, paid leave, raising the minimum wage.  All these things still matter to hardworking families; they are still the right thing to do; and I will not let up until they get done."

Nope.  Not a one.


6:17 PM

Obama: "... In fact, it's in that spirit that we have made progress these past seven years.  That's how we recovered from the worst economic crisis in generations.  {Applause}"

Maybe Ryan can find an applause line this time around??  He's not moved by talk of recovery, though.

"That's how we reformed our health care system, and reinvented our energy sector.  {Applause}  That's how we delivered more care and benefits to our troops coming home and our veterans. {Applause} That's how we secured the freedom in every state to marry the person we love. {Applause}"

Again, nope, not so much.  Not even for the troops and veterans.  Surprising.  I thought he got a bye on ALL references to troops and veterans.  That Freedom Caucus is even more hardcore than I gave 'em credit for.


6:19 PM


Marco Rubio just looked terrified that he might be caught on camera applauding for *anything* President Obama has said.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Denis McDonough Loses His Cool About Guantanamo

Denis McDonough / Photo: Sam Kittner, CC BY 2.0

Yesterday on Fox News Sunday, White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough got *very* agitated when discussing the issue of closing Guantanamo Bay and the supposed 30% of former detainees that are known or suspected to have returned to the battle field.**

White House Chiefs of Staff are traditionally cool and composed in media appearances.  To the best of my recollection, even notorious hothead Rahm Emanuel always kept his composure in press appearances, and did so through an epic financial crisis.

McDonough got ruffled and extremely defensive. Is it possible he's not comfortable with the Administration's policy? Was he just not well-prepared for this line of questioning? Or did he just hit his limit with the Bush administration's numbers being used against the Obama Administration?  

Watch the clip at 4:15 to 8:07 (especially after 6:11) and judge for yourself.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

No, Dianne Feinstein Is NOT Trying to Take Veterans' Guns

Senator Diane Feinstein / David Lee, CC BY 2.0


I love many things about modern technology.  The ease with which we can share information is absolutely amazing!  But that means it's also very easy for folks to share FALSE information.

For example, the following misinfographic ... which is a load of baloney.  

​​
Graphic altered to prevent further circulation of its nonsense.  Original had "Idiot" at the top and the fabricated quote at the bottom.


U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) NEVER uttered these words, and sure as heck doesn't even think it.

After further conversation with my Facebook friend who posted this, I've been able to figure out the origin of this meme.  He argued that "it's a paraphrase of what she said."

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Scientific Evidence Shows Extensive Unconscious Race Bias

 Racism: The Elephant in the Room / John Duffy, CC BY 2.0


A recent Washington Post piece linked to an excellent overview of the current state of science around unconscious race bias, as of a year ago.

A number of studies have indicated a significant degree of unconscious race bias among Americans, particularly against African Americans.  Experts in the fields of psychiatry, psychology, and neuroscience have been exploring a variety of possible remedial measures to counteract unconscious bias.  Which is pretty damn exciting.


Thursday, December 31, 2015

Happy New Year to You! On to 2016!

Fire allows us to be forged into stronger (and shinier!) instruments / Hans Splinter, CC BY-ND 2.0


A lot (I mean, A LOT) of my friends seem to be *really* mad at 2015. And I've definitely given a thumbs up to more than a few of the "Goodbye, and good riddance, 2015, ya bastard!" posts that have come across my Facebook feed the last few days.
I've been through some major life changes this year. And sure, the end of a five-year relationship, the dissolution of my family unit, and renting out part of my ex's house while I shake the trees seeking gainful employment are "not my favorite." Coming in after several extremely, mind-bogglingly, difficult years – to put it mildly – these developments were not initially welcome.
But 2015 has had some magical moments, too. I’ve continued rediscovering my voice and my passion for writing, which has been extremely rewarding. The wonder of modern medicine (and ACA – thanks, Obama!) have helped thoroughly tame a couple of chronic medical conditions that have bedeviled me for most of my life. 2015 has been a year of rebuilding my sense of competence and my self-confidence. At this exact moment in time, I feel so much better – and more at peace – than I have in years, perhaps ever.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Big Short "Market Genius" - We're Heading Toward Another Crisis

Starting young / Source: _Dinkel_, CC BY 2.0 


New York magazine recently posted an interesting interview with Michael Burry, the "market genius" depicted in The Big Short.  For folks concerned about the current state of our economy, it's a quick read and well worth it.

I don't agree with some of Burry's comments, but it's all worth considering.  What I *do* share is a concern that we in industrialized nations cannot seem to get away from our drive to produce "economic growth" at any price.  This usually results in the accumulation of obscene amounts of debt - in the public AND private sectors - until the whole system becomes completely unsustainable.  The related belief that large profits are the birthright of everyone with "enough smarts" to identify and exploit economic opportunities results in the bidding up of residential properties sales and/or rental prices until prices are beyond reach of the vast majority even WITH the aid of consumer debt (at which point, the bubble pops), downward pressure on wages and benefits paid to workers (and eroding wages/hours) coupled with increased workloads ...

We Need to Get Past Simplistic Higher Ed Policy Debates

Contemplating repaying those student loans / Francisco Osorio, CC BY 2.0 


A friend passed along this great, detailed New York Times op-ed by law prof Paul Campos, where he critically examines the prevailing conventional wisdom that skyrocketing higher ed tuition (and student loan debt) is due to eroding state support for higher education. If you, like me, are interested in these issues and missed this back in April, give it a read.

Higher education policy is one of those areas where public - and legislative - debate often boils down to painfully simplistic talking points that completely obscure the *real* sources of our problems with achieving efficient allocation of tax dollars, optimized investment in our people (or our workforce, for those who think talking about "people" is too warm and fuzzy), etc.  The old polarized arguments - We need to support education! vs. Grads make a lot of money & should pay for their own degrees! - don't cut it.


I've been suspicious of the claim that the skyrocketing tuition/fees and increasing student loan burdens are due - or even mostly due - to dwindling state support.  My suspicion is compounded by the reality that we've seen similar inflation in the private schools, who've long seemed to be in a bidding war to prove how "prestigious" they are through their pricing ... and we've seen public graduate and professional programs follow suit.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Brian Kilmeade: Call Me Stupid All Day Long, But FAT Is Fightin' Words!

 Brian Kilmeade / Charlie Cowins, CC BY 2.0


This morning toward the end of Kilmeade and Friends, Brian Kilmeade said something striking.

The show was being hosted by former Senator Scott Brown, apparently because  Kilmeade is busy pontificating about the Million Student March on various other outlets.  Brown was interviewing Kilmeade over the phone (yes, on Kilmeade's own radio show), and asked Kilmeade how he felt about the way he's portrayed on Saturday Night Live.  

Brown first played an audio clip of a NSFW SNL skit about himself, where Speaker Pelosi fantasizes about the former Cosmopolitan centerfold (played by Jon Hamm) when he arrives as a newly elected Senator.
Brown then played an audio clip of one of the numerous skits about Fox and Friends (around 0:18 to 0:32 here.)

Portland Conservative Talk Radio Site Hacked?

While looking up the lineup for Portland, Oregon conservative talk radio station "Freedom 970" moments ago, Google gave me the following:

​​

So has KUFO AM 970's website been hacked?  If so, by whom and why?  Or was this just an error on Google's part?

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Did the GOP Steal Kentucky Guv's Race? [Spoiler: Not Likely]

The Tea Party GOP Bevin-Hampton ticket won handily in an election with just 30% voter turnout / Photo: Facebook


An article from Alternet is making the rounds in online progressive and Democratic circles today, asking a provocative question:

Did GOP Insiders Steal the Kentucky Governor's Race for Tea Partier Matt Bevin?  

However, once you look at the Kentucky election results and dig a bit more into the dynamics of the race, it seems to be much ado about nothing.  And the bigger story here is that Kentucky's elected state executive offices just flipped party control from 6 Democrats and 1 Republican to 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

Some takes on the Alternet piece make it sound like more people voted on down-ballot races than on the Governor's race.  If true, that would be shocking - but it's not true.  Almost 10,000 more folks voted on Governor than Secretary of State, and races further down have, predictably, fewer votes cast. 

Let's look at the actual data:

Donald Trump Shakes His Groove Thing on SNL




In case you missed (or forgot) it, take a moment to enjoy Donald Trump getting jiggy with it on Saturday Night Live about a decade ago.

The Trump House of Wings "ad" features Trump dancing in that middle-aged guy, biting his lower-lip and wiggling his hips kinda way.  Best comparison: Michael Douglas in that club scene in Basic Instinct.

Just picture these moves at a State Dinner ... =/